Chornomorets 1-2 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Chornomorets welcome Ruh Lviv to Stadion Chornomorets. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Chornomorets this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Chornomorets are significantly better at Stadion Chornomorets than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chornomorets at 0.60 PPG versus Ruh Lviv's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Chornomorets have won 1, Ruh Lviv 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 44% versus Ruh Lviv 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chornomorets 46% | Ruh Lviv 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.97 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.821 / defence 1.025 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.921 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.010. Data: 55 Chornomorets games / 55 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 35% | Draw 32% | Ruh Lviv 34%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Ruh Lviv 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 30% | Ruh Lviv 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 35% | Draw 32% | Ruh Lviv 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Chornomorets 0.97 / Ruh Lviv 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.821 / def 1.025 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.921 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Ruh Lviv xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Chornomorets 1 - 2 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 35% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv?
Record (6 meetings): Chornomorets 1W | Draws 2 | Ruh Lviv 3W.
What form are Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chornomorets's attack rating (0.82) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
35%
2.88
32%
3.17
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
1.93
0.95
Ruh Lviv xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 13.9 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Chornomorets and 0.95 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 15W 5D 35L from 55 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 19W 22D 14L across 55 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ruh Lviv by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 11W 2D 13L from 26 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Chornomorets are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 10W 10D 6L across 26 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 15W 5D 35L in their last 55 games (0.91 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 19W 22D 14L in their last 55 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.35 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chornomorets's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
2
Draws
4
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Chornomorets 1-2 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 35%, Ruh Lviv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Chornomorets) and 35% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 38%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 31% of games; Ruh Lviv in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 50% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Chornomorets's recent games and 35% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ruh Lviv defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Chornomorets 1-2 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.97 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.95 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ruh Lviv outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 35% | Draw 32% | Ruh Lviv 34%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Ruh Lviv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 46%, Ruh Lviv 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.