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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chornomorets edge out LNZ Cherkasy 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chornomorets beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.01 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.99 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. LNZ Cherkasy landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 35% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 34%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 46%, LNZ Cherkasy 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chornomorets's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.90 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights