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Shock result as Livyi Bereh defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Livyi Bereh beat Chornomorets 0-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.95 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.73 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.66 / defence 0.96, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 39% | Draw 34% | Livyi Bereh 27%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Livyi Bereh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 41%, Livyi Bereh 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chornomorets's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.82 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Livyi Bereh win broke the near-deadlock. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights