Chornomorets 0-0 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Karpaty at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Karpaty encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chornomorets Stadium plays host to Chornomorets versus Karpaty in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 25 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Chornomorets (all games): 1W 2D 5L across 8 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.62 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 games at Chornomorets Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Karpaty's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Karpaty have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Karpaty are the stronger side — 0.88 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.62). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chornomorets, 2 for Karpaty and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 0–4 with Karpaty winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Chornomorets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Karpaty goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 50% versus Karpaty 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 38% | Karpaty 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.80 xG and Karpaty 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.742 / defence 1.062 | Karpaty attack 1.114 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.123. Chornomorets's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Chornomorets games / 39 Karpaty games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 19% | Draw 35% | Karpaty 46%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 5.26 | Draw 2.86 | Karpaty 2.17. Karpaty hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karpaty at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karpaty if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 60% | Karpaty 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Chornomorets Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 19% | Draw 35% | Karpaty 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Chornomorets 0.80 / Karpaty 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.742 / def 1.062 | Karpaty attack 1.114 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Karpaty (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Karpaty xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Karpaty kick off?
Chornomorets vs Karpaty kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Chornomorets Stadium.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Karpaty?
Chornomorets 0 - 0 Karpaty.
Where is Chornomorets vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Chornomorets Stadium.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Karpaty part of?
Chornomorets vs Karpaty is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 19% chance of winning, Karpaty a 46% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Karpaty the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Chornomorets and Karpaty will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Karpaty?
Record (2 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 0 | Karpaty 2W.
What form are Chornomorets and Karpaty in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.38 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Karpaty (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chornomorets's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Karpaty's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — Karpaty's attack (1.11x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 8/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
19%
5.22
35%
2.85
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.13
1.33
Karpaty xG
5.22
19%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
5%
19.72
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 15.8 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.33 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Karpaty?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 1W 2D 5L from 8 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karpaty, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 2L across 8 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Karpaty by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Karpaty's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karpaty come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.62 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Karpaty in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Karpaty
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Karpaty in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Karpaty away?
Karpaty's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.67 PPG; Karpaty away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Karpaty in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karpaty won 4-0 on 30 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Karpaty — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
1
Draws
2
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Karpaty?
From 3 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 0, Karpaty have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Karpaty last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Chornomorets 0-0 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Karpaty?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Karpaty see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 67%, Karpaty 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Chornomorets and 0% for Karpaty.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Karpaty in 33%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 33% of games; Karpaty in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Karpaty?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 33% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Karpaty usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chornomorets's recent games and 0% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Karpaty tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Karpaty in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chornomorets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chornomorets Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Chornomorets and Karpaty drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.80 xG and Karpaty 1.33 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chornomorets fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Karpaty landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.74 / defence 1.06 against Karpaty attack 1.11 / defence 0.81, drawn from 8/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 19% | Draw 35% | Karpaty 46%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 38%, Karpaty 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karpaty's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chornomorets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Karpaty (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.