Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kryvbas KR cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Chornomorets.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kryvbas KR beat Chornomorets 1-3 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.77 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.04 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kryvbas KR outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.73 / defence 1.04 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.98 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 24% | Draw 37% | Kryvbas KR 39%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 43%, Kryvbas KR 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chornomorets's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Chornomorets (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights