Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chornomorets's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Kryvbas KR's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (0.98x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
24%
4.13
37%
2.70
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
1.81
1.04
Kryvbas KR xG
4.13
24%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.66
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 17.0 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.04 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.