Chornomorets 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dynamo Kyiv (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chornomorets face Dynamo Kyiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Dynamo Kyiv travel to Stadion Chornomorets to take on Chornomorets. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Chornomorets this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo Kyiv stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 5W 5D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Chornomorets, 4 for Dynamo Kyiv and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 1–3 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 45% versus Dynamo Kyiv 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 48% | Dynamo Kyiv 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.64 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.781 / defence 1.278 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.456 / defence 0.700. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.012. Chornomorets's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dynamo Kyiv's defence strength of 0.700 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.456 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Chornomorets games / 58 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 12% | Draw 21% | Dynamo Kyiv 67%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 8.33 | Draw 4.76 | Dynamo Kyiv 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo Kyiv at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 30% | Dynamo Kyiv 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 12% | Draw 21% | Dynamo Kyiv 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 40% | xG Chornomorets 0.64 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.781 / def 1.278 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.456 / def 0.700 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Dynamo Kyiv xG
40%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Chornomorets 1 - 1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 12% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 67% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (6 meetings): Chornomorets 2W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Kyiv 4W.
What form are Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.78x the league average against Dynamo Kyiv's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.9%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
12%
8.50
21%
4.76
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.3%
Away win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.52
1.88
Dynamo Kyiv xG
8.50
12%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
15%
6.57
53%
1.89
Win to Nil
2%
55.85
36%
2.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 15.2 | 14.3 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.88 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 16W 5D 37L from 58 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Dynamo Kyiv, meanwhile, have gone 42W 11D 5L across 58 games — 2.36 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 1.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 11W 2D 15L from 28 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dynamo Kyiv's away record stands at 18W 7D 3L across 28 trips, a 2.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.26 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Current Season
Dynamo Kyiv
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 16W 5D 37L in their last 58 games (0.91 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 42W 11D 5L in their last 58 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.25 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Nov 2021, when Dynamo Kyiv won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chornomorets's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
1
Draws
4
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Dynamo Kyiv have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Chornomorets 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 36%, Dynamo Kyiv 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Chornomorets) and 57% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Dynamo Kyiv in 36%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 61% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Chornomorets's recent games and 57% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 29, as Chornomorets and Dynamo Kyiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.64 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.88 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.78 / defence 1.28 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.46 / defence 0.70, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 12% | Draw 21% | Dynamo Kyiv 67%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 48%, Dynamo Kyiv 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.