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Ahrobiznes Volochysk and Kudrivka share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yunist Stadium, Final, as Ahrobiznes Volochysk and Kudrivka drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.24 xG and Kudrivka 1.06 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kudrivka outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ahrobiznes Volochysk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Kudrivka attack 0.74 / defence 1.21, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ahrobiznes Volochysk 40% | Draw 30% | Kudrivka 31%, with Ahrobiznes Volochysk to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ahrobiznes Volochysk 0%, Kudrivka 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.00 PPG, Kudrivka 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ahrobiznes Volochysk scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kudrivka scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.