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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Uthai Thani run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sukhothai FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Uthai Thani beat Sukhothai FC 3-0 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.37 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sukhothai FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 41% | Draw 29% | Sukhothai FC 31%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 55%, Sukhothai FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.15 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights