Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Uthai Thani at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Uthai Thani host Rayong FC at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Rayong FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayong FC away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Uthai Thani 0.90 PPG, Rayong FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Uthai Thani, 1 for Rayong FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 4–1 with Uthai Thani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Rayong FC in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 61% and Rayong FC 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 48% | Rayong FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.82 xG and Rayong FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.045 / defence 0.971 | Rayong FC attack 0.988 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Uthai Thani's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Uthai Thani games / 31 Rayong FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 55% | Draw 24% | Rayong FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Rayong FC 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 55% | Draw 24% | Rayong FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Uthai Thani 1.82 / Rayong FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.045 / def 0.971 | Rayong FC attack 0.988 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Rayong FC xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 55% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Uthai Thani and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Rayong FC?
Record (4 meetings): Uthai Thani 3W | Draws 0 | Rayong FC 1W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Rayong FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Uthai Thani's attack rating (1.04) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.17
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.87
1.05
Rayong FC xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
3%
29.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.05 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 8W 10D 13L from 31 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayong FC, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 11L across 31 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.10 PPG, Rayong FC on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Uthai Thani have managed 5W 5D 5L from 15 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayong FC's away record stands at 2W 4D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayong FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.45 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Rayong FC in 74%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Rayong FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 8W 10D 13L in their last 31 games (1.10 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 10W 10D 11L in their last 31 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Rayong FC away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.33 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Uthai Thani and Rayong FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Uthai Thani won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Rayong FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Uthai Thani
0
Draws
1
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 3, Rayong FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Uthai Thani 4-1 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Rayong FC?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Uthai Thani at 60%, Rayong FC at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Uthai Thani) and 60% (Rayong FC).
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Uthai Thani's games and 80% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 60% of Rayong FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.