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Poisson rates Uthai Thani at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC encounter.

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Match Analysis

Uthai Thani host Rayong FC at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Uthai Thani haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Uthai Thani at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Rayong FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rayong FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Rayong FC away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Uthai Thani 0.90 PPG, Rayong FC 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Uthai Thani, 1 for Rayong FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 4–1 with Uthai Thani winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Rayong FC in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 60% and Rayong FC 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 47% | Rayong FC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 2.07 xG and Rayong FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.014 / defence 0.971 | Rayong FC attack 1.002 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Uthai Thani's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Uthai Thani games / 30 Rayong FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 61% | Draw 24% | Rayong FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Rayong FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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