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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Uthai Thani run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Rayong FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Uthai Thani beat Rayong FC 4-1 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.99 xG and Rayong FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.06 / defence 0.90 against Rayong FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.28, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 59% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 15%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 47%, Rayong FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Rayong FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.16 PPG, Rayong FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights