Uthai Thani vs Port FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Port FC (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Uthai Thani face Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Uthai Thani welcome Port FC to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 May 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Uthai Thani — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Uthai Thani have posted 4W 2D 4L at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Port FC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Uthai Thani's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Uthai Thani register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Port FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Port FC have the better historical record — 3 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Uthai Thani.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Port FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Port FC have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Port FC in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 64% versus Port FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 53% | Port FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.19 xG and Port FC 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.998 / defence 1.174 | Port FC attack 1.047 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Data: 37 Uthai Thani games / 36 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 24% | Draw 25% | Port FC 51%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Port FC 1.96. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 60% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 24% | Draw 25% | Port FC 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Uthai Thani 1.19 / Port FC 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.998 / def 1.174 | Port FC attack 1.047 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Port FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Port FC xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Port FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Port FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 23 May 2027 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Port FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 24% chance of winning, Port FC a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Uthai Thani and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
Record (6 meetings): Uthai Thani 0W | Draws 3 | Port FC 3W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Port FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Port FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
24%
4.09
25%
4.01
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.98
1.79
Port FC xG
4.09
24%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
17%
5.99
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
4%
24.52
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.79 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Uthai Thani come into this having played 36 games, going 10W 10D 16L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 2.08 PPG from 36 outings (23W 6D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Uthai Thani's home form reads 6W 4D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.71 points per game from 17 outings (9W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.03 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Port FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Port FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while Port FC have gone 23W 6D 7L in their last 36 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.29 PPG; Port FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Port FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Uthai Thani and Port FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2023, when Port FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Uthai Thani
3
Draws
3
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 0, Port FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-1 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 65%, Port FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Uthai Thani) and 41% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Uthai Thani's games and 47% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 41% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Port FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Port FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.