Uthai Thani vs Port FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 39%, yet in-form Port FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Uthai Thani vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Uthai Thani welcome Port FC to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 May 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Uthai Thani — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Uthai Thani have posted 5W 2D 3L at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Port FC's 2.40 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Uthai Thani's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Port FC have the better historical record — 3 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Uthai Thani.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Port FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Port FC have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Port FC in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 61% versus Port FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 48% | Port FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.38 xG and Port FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.045 / defence 0.971 | Port FC attack 1.185 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Uthai Thani games / 31 Port FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 39% | Draw 27% | Port FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Port FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 39% | Draw 27% | Port FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Uthai Thani 1.38 / Port FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.045 / def 0.971 | Port FC attack 1.185 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Port FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Port FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Port FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 23 May 2027 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Port FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 39% chance of winning, Port FC a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Uthai Thani and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
Record (6 meetings): Uthai Thani 0W | Draws 3 | Port FC 3W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Port FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.65
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.63
1.26
Port FC xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.26 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Uthai Thani come into this having played 31 games, going 8W 10D 13L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 2.03 PPG from 31 outings (19W 6D 6L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Uthai Thani's home form reads 5W 5D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.73 points per game from 15 outings (8W 2D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.97 scored and 0.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Port FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Port FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 8W 10D 13L in their last 31 games (1.10 PPG), while Port FC have gone 19W 6D 6L in their last 31 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.33 PPG; Port FC away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Port FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Uthai Thani and Port FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2023, when Port FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Uthai Thani
3
Draws
3
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 0, Port FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-1 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 60%, Port FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Uthai Thani) and 40% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC in 33%; Uthai Thani have failed to score in 27% of games; Port FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 47% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Uthai Thani vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 40% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Port FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Port FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.