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Prediction vindicated as Uthai Thani edge out Kanchanaburi 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Uthai Thani beat Kanchanaburi 2-1 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 2.37 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.77 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.22 / defence 0.95 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.71 / defence 1.25, drawn from 50/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 72% | Draw 19% | Kanchanaburi 9%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 52%, Kanchanaburi 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.10 PPG, Kanchanaburi 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights