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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.78 xG and Chiangrai United 1.21 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.94 / defence 0.90 against Chiangrai United attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 49% | Draw 26% | Chiangrai United 24%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 43%, Chiangrai United 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.23 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights