🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Uthai Thani host Chiangrai United at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 August 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Uthai Thani haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Uthai Thani's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Chiangrai United — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chiangrai United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Uthai Thani) versus 1.30 (Chiangrai United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Uthai Thani, 2 for Chiangrai United and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Chiangrai United winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 53% versus Chiangrai United 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 43% | Chiangrai United 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.78 xG and Chiangrai United 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.944 / defence 0.900 | Chiangrai United attack 1.028 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.310. Data: 30 Uthai Thani games / 30 Chiangrai United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 49% | Draw 26% | Chiangrai United 24%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Chiangrai United 4.17. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Uthai Thani at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Chiangrai United 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights