🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Uthai Thani 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United beat Uthai Thani 0-1 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.37 xG and BG Pathum United 1.63 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Uthai Thani fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.83 / defence 1.15 against BG Pathum United attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 30% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 42%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 46%, BG Pathum United 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights