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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Uthai Thani and Bangkok United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Uthai Thani and Bangkok United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.24 xG and Bangkok United 0.72 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.10 / defence 0.91 against Bangkok United attack 0.75 / defence 0.79, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 46% | Draw 34% | Bangkok United 20%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 47%, Bangkok United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Bangkok United's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights