Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior host Sukhothai FC at Mae Guang Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 1). Kick-off is Monday 14 August 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lamphun Warrior have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sukhothai FC — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Lamphun Warrior carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 60% of Sukhothai FC's (from Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Sukhothai FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Sukhothai FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2023, ended Lamphun Warrior 2–1 Sukhothai FC — a Lamphun Warrior win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 40% versus Sukhothai FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamphun Warrior 37% | Sukhothai FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.63 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.017 / defence 0.921 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.921 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.242. Data: built from Lamphun Warrior's last 30 games and Sukhothai FC's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 51% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.97 | Draw 4.06 | Sukhothai FC 4.08. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamphun Warrior 60% (last 10 home games) | Sukhothai FC 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Lamphun Warrior 30 games, Sukhothai FC 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 1 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 August 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 51% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.63 / Sukhothai FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.017 / def 0.921 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.921 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sukhothai FC xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC FAQs
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Monday 14 August 2023 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 2 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 1) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 51% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.02) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamphun Warrior's last 30 games and Sukhothai FC's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.06
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.69
1.05
Sukhothai FC xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
5%
20.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.05 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 9D 12L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.13 PPG from 30 outings (8W 10D 12L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.20 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 6W 5D 4L across their last 15 home games, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.80 points per game from their last 15 away games (2W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.90 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Pre-Season
Sukhothai FC
Pre-Season
Lamphun Warrior (Home) vs Sukhothai FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamphun Warrior
Pre-Season
Sukhothai FC
Pre-Season
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC Form FAQs
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.53 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Sep 2024, when Sukhothai FC won Sukhothai FC 4-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Lamphun Warrior
1
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamphun Warrior have won 6, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 47%, Sukhothai FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lamphun Warrior) and 33% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 40% of games; Sukhothai FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 60% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 33% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 80% of Sukhothai FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sukhothai FC defy the odds to beat Lamphun Warrior 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Lamphun Warrior 1-2 at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.63 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sukhothai FC outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 51% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 25%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Sukhothai FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 37%, Sukhothai FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.20 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.