Sukhothai FC 3-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thung Talay Luang Stadium plays host to Sukhothai FC versus Rayong FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sukhothai FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's home record at Thung Talay Luang Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thung Talay Luang Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Talay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Rayong FC (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rayong FC have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Sukhothai FC. A 0.50 PPG lead over Rayong FC (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Sukhothai FC half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Rayong FC half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 60% and Rayong FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 60% | Rayong FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 2.37 xG and Rayong FC 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.050 / defence 1.027 | Rayong FC attack 0.731 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.119. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Sukhothai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Sukhothai FC games / 10 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 70% | Draw 20% | Rayong FC 10%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Rayong FC 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Sukhothai FC (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sukhothai FC are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Sukhothai FC 40% | Rayong FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 70% | Draw 20% | Rayong FC 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 53% | xG Sukhothai FC 2.37 / Rayong FC 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.050 / def 1.027 | Rayong FC attack 0.731 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (70%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Rayong FC xG
53%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC?
Sukhothai FC 3 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 70% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 10% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Rayong FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (1.05) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rayong FC's attack (0.73x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
70%
1.43
20%
4.92
10%
10.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.21
0.84
Rayong FC xG
1.43
70%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
10.06
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
9%
10.65
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
1%
107.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.84 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 1D 5L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rayong FC sit at 0.80 PPG from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sukhothai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Rayong FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sukhothai FC's home form reads 3W 0D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rayong FC have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 0.90 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Rayong FC in 60%.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Rayong FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Rayong FC away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.80 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Rayong FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Rayong FC in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rayong FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
2
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Rayong FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Sukhothai FC 2-1 Rayong FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 40%, Rayong FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sukhothai FC and 60% for Rayong FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Rayong FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Rayong FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 40% of Rayong FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 60% of Rayong FC's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sukhothai FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rayong FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Rayong FC 3-1 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 2.37 xG and Rayong FC 0.84 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Rayong FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.30, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 70% | Draw 20% | Rayong FC 10%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 60%, Rayong FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Rayong FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sukhothai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.