Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 39%, yet in-form Ratchaburi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Sukhothai FC welcome Ratchaburi to Thalay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Thalay Luang Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Sukhothai FC's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 3 for Ratchaburi and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 48% versus Ratchaburi 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 39% | Ratchaburi 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.42 xG and Ratchaburi 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.098 / defence 1.087 | Ratchaburi attack 1.020 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.221. Data: 33 Sukhothai FC games / 33 Ratchaburi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 39% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 36%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Ratchaburi 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ratchaburi (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 70% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 39% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.42 / Ratchaburi 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.098 / def 1.087 | Ratchaburi attack 1.020 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Ratchaburi xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 39% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (8 meetings): Sukhothai FC 3W | Draws 2 | Ratchaburi 3W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 1.10x the league average against Ratchaburi's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
39%
2.58
25%
3.93
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.35
Ratchaburi xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.35 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 7W 10D 16L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi's form line: 19W 6D 8L from 33 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sukhothai FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.59 PPG from 17 outings (7W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 10W 2D 5L from 17 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.76 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 7W 10D 16L in their last 33 games (0.94 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 19W 6D 8L in their last 33 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.59 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-2 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sukhothai FC at 71%, Ratchaburi at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sukhothai FC) and 59% (Ratchaburi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Sukhothai FC's games and 65% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 59% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.