Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Sukhothai FC welcome Ratchaburi to Thalay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Thalay Luang Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Ratchaburi away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sukhothai FC's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 4 for Ratchaburi and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2026, ended 0–6 with Ratchaburi winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 49% versus Ratchaburi 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 46% | Ratchaburi 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.75 xG and Ratchaburi 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.154 / defence 1.116 | Ratchaburi attack 1.306 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.436. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — the away xG of 2.09 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Sukhothai FC games / 37 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 33% | Draw 21% | Ratchaburi 46%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 3.03 | Draw 4.76 | Ratchaburi 2.17. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 70% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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