Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 47%, yet in-form Ratchaburi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Sukhothai FC welcome Ratchaburi to Thalay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Thalay Luang Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Sukhothai FC's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 4 for Ratchaburi and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2026, ended 0–6 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 49% versus Ratchaburi 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 43% | Ratchaburi 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.87 xG and Ratchaburi 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.314 / defence 1.023 | Ratchaburi attack 1.082 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Sukhothai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Sukhothai FC games / 35 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 47% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 29%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Ratchaburi 3.45. Sukhothai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ratchaburi (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 70% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 47% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.87 / Ratchaburi 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.314 / def 1.023 | Ratchaburi attack 1.082 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Ratchaburi xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 47% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (9 meetings): Sukhothai FC 3W | Draws 2 | Ratchaburi 4W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 1.31x the league average against Ratchaburi's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.19
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.30
1.43
Ratchaburi xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
4%
22.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.43 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 8W 10D 17L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi's form line: 21W 6D 8L from 35 games, 1.97 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sukhothai FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 11W 2D 5L from 18 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.89 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 8W 10D 17L in their last 35 games (0.97 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 21W 6D 8L in their last 35 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2026, when Ratchaburi won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
From 9 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Ratchaburi 6-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sukhothai FC at 72%, Ratchaburi at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sukhothai FC) and 61% (Ratchaburi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Sukhothai FC's games and 67% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 61% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.