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Stalemate at Sukhothai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Sukhothai FC and Prachuap drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.67 xG and Prachuap 1.03 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sukhothai FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Prachuap landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Prachuap attack 0.98 / defence 1.27, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 51% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 23%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 52%, Prachuap 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (46 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Prachuap's trading profile (46 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.17 PPG, Prachuap 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights