Sukhothai FC 0-0 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sukhothai FC at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Sukhothai FC welcome Nakhon Pathom to Thung Talay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sukhothai FC have posted 7W 0D 3L at Thung Talay Luang Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Talay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Pathom — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sukhothai FC at 1.20 PPG versus Nakhon Pathom's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 0 for Nakhon Pathom and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Sukhothai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Nakhon Pathom in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 59% and Nakhon Pathom 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 65% | Nakhon Pathom 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 2.00 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.118 / defence 1.161 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.937 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.215. Data: 51 Sukhothai FC games / 51 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 53% | Draw 22% | Nakhon Pathom 25%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Nakhon Pathom 4.00. Sukhothai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sukhothai FC are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 60% | Nakhon Pathom 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 53% | Draw 22% | Nakhon Pathom 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Sukhothai FC 2.00 / Nakhon Pathom 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.118 / def 1.161 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.937 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Nakhon Pathom xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Sukhothai FC 0 - 0 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 53% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom?
Record (3 meetings): Sukhothai FC 2W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Pathom 0W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sukhothai FC's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Pathom's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Pathom's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
53%
1.89
22%
4.51
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.33
1.32
Nakhon Pathom xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
3%
29.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.32 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 17W 9D 25L from 51 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Pathom, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 25L across 51 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.18 PPG, Nakhon Pathom on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 14W 2D 9L from 25 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nakhon Pathom's away record stands at 4W 7D 14L across 25 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.14 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom in 67%.
Last 51 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 17W 9D 25L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 12W 14D 25L in their last 51 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.76 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Nakhon Pathom specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
0
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom?
From 4 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Sukhothai FC 0-0 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 56%, Nakhon Pathom 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Sukhothai FC and 64% for Nakhon Pathom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Nakhon Pathom in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sukhothai FC's games and 64% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 64% of Nakhon Pathom's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sukhothai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom finished level at 0-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 2.00 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.32 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sukhothai FC fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Nakhon Pathom landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.16 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 53% | Draw 22% | Nakhon Pathom 25%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 65%, Nakhon Pathom 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.18 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.