Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Sukhothai FC welcome Lamphun Warrior to Thalay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC at Thalay Luang Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sukhothai FC 0.70 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sukhothai FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lamphun Warrior in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Lamphun Warrior have the better historical record — 6 wins from 8 previous contests against 2 for Sukhothai FC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 0–3 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lamphun Warrior have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sukhothai FC trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Lamphun Warrior trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 48% versus Lamphun Warrior 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 39% | Lamphun Warrior 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.33 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.964 / defence 1.180 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.958 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Sukhothai FC games / 31 Lamphun Warrior games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 38% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 34%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Lamphun Warrior 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 60% | Lamphun Warrior 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 38% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.33 / Lamphun Warrior 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.964 / def 1.180 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.958 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Lamphun Warrior xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 38% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (8 meetings): Sukhothai FC 2W | Draws 0 | Lamphun Warrior 6W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.59
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.56
1.23
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
9%
11.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.23 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 6W 10D 15L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 4W 17D 10L from 31 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 0.90 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 7D 6L from 15 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.16 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior in 68%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 10D 15L in their last 31 games (0.90 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 17D 10L in their last 31 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.40 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lamphun Warrior have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Sukhothai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
6
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Lamphun Warrior have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 3-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sukhothai FC at 73%, Lamphun Warrior at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sukhothai FC) and 40% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Sukhothai FC's games and 60% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 40% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.