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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.49 xG and Chiangrai United 1.19 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Chiangrai United attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 43% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 29%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 57%, Chiangrai United 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.17 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights