Sukhothai FC 1-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 43%, yet in-form Chiangrai United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United meet at Thalay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 September 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sukhothai FC have posted 4W 2D 4L at Thalay Luang Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chiangrai United (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Chiangrai United are 0.70 PPG clear of Sukhothai FC in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sukhothai FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Chiangrai United in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sukhothai FC, 1 for Chiangrai United and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 63% versus Chiangrai United 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 57% | Chiangrai United 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.49 xG and Chiangrai United 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.955 / defence 1.038 | Chiangrai United attack 0.941 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.219. Data: 35 Sukhothai FC games / 35 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 43% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 29%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Chiangrai United 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chiangrai United (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 70% | Chiangrai United 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 43% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.49 / Chiangrai United 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.955 / def 1.038 | Chiangrai United attack 0.941 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Chiangrai United xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 26 September 2025 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 43% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United?
Record (6 meetings): Sukhothai FC 2W | Draws 3 | Chiangrai United 1W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sukhothai FC's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Chiangrai United's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (0.94x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.50
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.19
Chiangrai United xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
6%
15.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.19 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 35 games, going 10W 11D 14L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.26 PPG from 35 outings (13W 5D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Sukhothai FC against 1.26 for Chiangrai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sukhothai FC's home form reads 9W 2D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 0.53 points per game from 17 outings (2W 3D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.11 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 10W 11D 14L in their last 35 games (1.17 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 13W 5D 17L in their last 35 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.71 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sukhothai FC won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
5
Draws
1
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Chiangrai United have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-1 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 65%, Chiangrai United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Sukhothai FC and 53% for Chiangrai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sukhothai FC's games and 53% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 53% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.49 xG and Chiangrai United 1.19 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Chiangrai United attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 43% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 29%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 57%, Chiangrai United 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.17 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.