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Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Sukhothai FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Sukhothai FC 0-1 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.47 xG and Buriram United 1.72 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sukhothai FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Buriram United attack 1.51 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 31% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 41%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 52%, Buriram United 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Buriram United's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights