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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Buriram United (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sukhothai FC face Buriram United.

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Match Analysis

Sukhothai FC host Buriram United at Thalay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 24 December 2025 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sukhothai FC at Thalay Luang Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Buriram United — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

Buriram United have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 6 encounters against Sukhothai FC's 0 victories.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Buriram United winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Sukhothai FC trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Buriram United trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 64% versus Buriram United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 52% | Buriram United 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.47 xG and Buriram United 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.926 / defence 0.939 | Buriram United attack 1.513 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.210. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.513 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Sukhothai FC games / 44 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 31% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 41%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Buriram United 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 80% | Buriram United 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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