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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sukhothai FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over BG Pathum United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sukhothai FC beat BG Pathum United 3-1 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.21 xG and BG Pathum United 1.24 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against BG Pathum United attack 1.07 / defence 0.92, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 33% | Draw 33% | BG Pathum United 34%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Sukhothai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 54%, BG Pathum United 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Sukhothai FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights