Sisaket United 2-5 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sisaket United vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sisaket United host Ratchaburi at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 30 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sisaket United stand at 3W 1D 2L from 6 Thai League 1 matches — 1.67 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sisaket United have posted 1W 1D 1L at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ratchaburi — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sisaket United at 1.67 PPG versus Ratchaburi's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sisaket United register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Ratchaburi in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Sisaket United trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Ratchaburi trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 83% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sisaket United 67% and Ratchaburi 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sisaket United 50% | Ratchaburi 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sisaket United 1.18 xG and Ratchaburi 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sisaket United attack 0.834 / defence 0.993 | Ratchaburi attack 1.067 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.364. Data: 6 Sisaket United games / 36 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sisaket United 30% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 42%. Fair-value odds: Sisaket United 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Ratchaburi 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Sisaket United 67% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sisaket United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sisaket United 30% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Sisaket United 1.18 / Ratchaburi 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Sisaket United attack 0.834 / def 0.993 | Ratchaburi attack 1.067 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Sisaket United xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Ratchaburi xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sisaket United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Sisaket United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium.
What was the final score in Sisaket United vs Ratchaburi?
Sisaket United 2 - 5 Ratchaburi.
Where is Sisaket United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium.
What competition is Sisaket United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Sisaket United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sisaket United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Sisaket United a 30% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sisaket United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sisaket United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Sisaket United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sisaket United and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sisaket United and Ratchaburi in?
Sisaket United (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sisaket United's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Sisaket United's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
30%
3.37
28%
3.53
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Sisaket United xG
Total xG
2.62
1.45
Ratchaburi xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
7%
14.32
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sisaket United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sisaket United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sisaket United and 1.45 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Sisaket United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sisaket United come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 1D 2L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ratchaburi sit at 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sisaket United on 1.67 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sisaket United's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Ratchaburi have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Sisaket United are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sisaket United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Ratchaburi in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sisaket United
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sisaket United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Sisaket United have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sisaket United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Sisaket United's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sisaket United at home: 1.33 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sisaket United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sisaket United have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sisaket United and Ratchaburi runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Sisaket United
0
Draws
1
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sisaket United and Ratchaburi?
From 1 meetings on record, Sisaket United have won 0, Ratchaburi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sisaket United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2026, when Sisaket United 2-5 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Sisaket United and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sisaket United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sisaket United at 67%, Ratchaburi at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sisaket United) and 67% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Sisaket United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sisaket United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sisaket United play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sisaket United's games and 100% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sisaket United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sisaket United's recent games and 67% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sisaket United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Sisaket United have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Sisaket United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Sisaket United 2-5 at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sisaket United 1.18 xG and Ratchaburi 1.45 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Sisaket United beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.45 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sisaket United attack 0.83 / defence 0.99 against Ratchaburi attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sisaket United 30% | Draw 28% | Ratchaburi 42%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sisaket United 50%, Ratchaburi 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sisaket United's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sisaket United 1.67 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Sisaket United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.