Sisaket United vs Port FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sisaket United vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium plays host to Sisaket United versus Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Sisaket United (all games): 3W 1D 3L across 7 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.43 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium, Sisaket United have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Port FC have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Port FC are the stronger side — 1.07 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.43). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sisaket United register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Port FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Sisaket United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sisaket United 71% and Port FC 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sisaket United 57% | Port FC 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sisaket United 1.10 xG and Port FC 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sisaket United attack 0.925 / defence 1.281 | Port FC attack 1.047 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Data: 7 Sisaket United games / 36 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sisaket United 20% | Draw 23% | Port FC 56%. Fair-value odds: Sisaket United 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Port FC 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Sisaket United 75% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sisaket United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sisaket United 20% | Draw 23% | Port FC 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Sisaket United 1.10 / Port FC 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sisaket United attack 0.925 / def 1.281 | Port FC attack 1.047 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Port FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Sisaket United xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Port FC xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sisaket United vs Port FC kick off?
Sisaket United vs Port FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium.
Where is Sisaket United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium.
What competition is Sisaket United vs Port FC part of?
Sisaket United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sisaket United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Sisaket United a 20% chance of winning, Port FC a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sisaket United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sisaket United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sisaket United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sisaket United and Port FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sisaket United and Port FC in?
Sisaket United (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.86 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Port FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sisaket United's attack rating (0.93) and Port FC's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.05x) against Sisaket United's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.95.
These ratings are built from 7/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
20%
4.95
23%
4.27
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Sisaket United xG
Total xG
3.06
1.95
Port FC xG
4.95
20%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
14%
7.06
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
3%
34.92
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sisaket United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Sisaket United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sisaket United and 1.95 for Port FC, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Sisaket United vs Port FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sisaket United's recent record stands at 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 0D 1L across 7 games — 2.57 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sisaket United heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sisaket United have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Port FC's away record stands at 3W 0D 1L across 4 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sisaket United are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.57 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sisaket United have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Port FC in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sisaket United
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sisaket United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Sisaket United have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Port FC have gone 6W 0D 1L in their last 7 (2.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sisaket United at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sisaket United at home: 1.00 PPG; Port FC away: 2.25 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sisaket United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Sisaket United, 75% for Port FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Sisaket United and 75% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sisaket United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sisaket United play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sisaket United's games and 75% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sisaket United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sisaket United's matches and 75% of Port FC's.
Do Sisaket United and Port FC tend to score early?
Sisaket United have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Port FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.