🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Uthai Thani defy the odds to beat Rayong FC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Uthai Thani beat Rayong FC 2-3 at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.75 xG and Uthai Thani 1.33 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Uthai Thani outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against Uthai Thani attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 19/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 46% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 28%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Uthai Thani win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 58%, Uthai Thani 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayong FC 1.11 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights