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Poisson rates Rayong FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani encounter.

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Match Analysis

Rayong FC host Uthai Thani at WHA Rayong Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Rayong FC — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Rayong FC have posted 3W 5D 2L at WHA Rayong Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

On current form, Rayong FC have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rayong FC, 1 for Uthai Thani and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Uthai Thani winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Rayong FC in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayong FC 63% versus Uthai Thani 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 58% | Uthai Thani 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.75 xG and Uthai Thani 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.955 / defence 1.194 | Uthai Thani attack 0.946 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.179. Data: 19 Rayong FC games / 48 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rayong FC 46% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 28%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Uthai Thani 3.57. Rayong FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayong FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayong FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 80% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.

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