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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayong FC and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC and Chiangrai United finished level at 1-1 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 2.55 xG and Chiangrai United 1.54 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Rayong FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.25 / defence 1.15 against Chiangrai United attack 1.17 / defence 1.33, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 59% | Draw 20% | Chiangrai United 21%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 60%, Chiangrai United 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayong FC 1.23 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rayong FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights