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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayong FC and BG Pathum United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC and BG Pathum United finished level at 1-1 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.38 xG and BG Pathum United 1.27 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.08 against BG Pathum United attack 1.02 / defence 0.80, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 37% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 33%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 60%, BG Pathum United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rayong FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights