🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Uthai Thani.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Uthai Thani 3-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.53 xG and Uthai Thani 0.92 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.90 / defence 0.88 against Uthai Thani attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 29% | Uthai Thani 21%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 54%, Uthai Thani 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights