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Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Sukhothai FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Sukhothai FC 1-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.41 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.67 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.01 / defence 0.75 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 52% | Draw 34% | Sukhothai FC 14%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 55%, Sukhothai FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights