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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.75 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.71 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.84 / defence 0.78 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.34, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 61% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 14%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 53%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights