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Poisson model favours Ratchaburi (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ratchaburi face Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

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Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Nakhon Ratchasima FC travel to Dragon Solar Park to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026, 11:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dragon Solar Park.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

Ratchaburi are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 1.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Ratchaburi winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Ratchaburi trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 53% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 53% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.75 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.842 / defence 0.784 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.812 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.113. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ratchaburi's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Ratchaburi games / 45 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 61% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 40% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% BTTS from recent games.

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