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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ratchaburi and Kanchanaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi and Kanchanaburi finished level at 1-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.30 xG and Kanchanaburi 1.12 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ratchaburi fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.06 / defence 0.98 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 63% | Draw 20% | Kanchanaburi 17%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights