Ratchaburi 1-1 Kanchanaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Kanchanaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Kanchanaburi travel to Dragon Solar Park to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 August 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ratchaburi — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ratchaburi haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dragon Solar Park.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.30 xG and Kanchanaburi 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.063 / defence 0.983 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.881 / away 1.347. Data: 30 Ratchaburi games / 0 Kanchanaburi games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 63% | Draw 20% | Kanchanaburi 17%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Kanchanaburi 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Kanchanaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Friday 15 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 63% | Draw 20% | Kanchanaburi 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 61% | xG Ratchaburi 2.30 / Kanchanaburi 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.063 / def 0.983 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.881 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Kanchanaburi xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Kanchanaburi kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Kanchanaburi kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 15 August 2025 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Kanchanaburi?
Ratchaburi 1 - 1 Kanchanaburi.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Kanchanaburi being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Kanchanaburi part of?
Ratchaburi vs Kanchanaburi is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Kanchanaburi?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 63% chance of winning, Kanchanaburi a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Kanchanaburi?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ratchaburi and Kanchanaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Kanchanaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Kanchanaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Kanchanaburi in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.06x the league average against Kanchanaburi's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kanchanaburi's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
63%
1.59
20%
4.94
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.42
1.12
Kanchanaburi xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
10%
9.97
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
2%
59.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Kanchanaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Kanchanaburi expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.12 for Kanchanaburi, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Kanchanaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Pre-Season
Kanchanaburi
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
0
Kanchanaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Kanchanaburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 1, Kanchanaburi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Kanchanaburi last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Kanchanaburi 0-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Kanchanaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Kanchanaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ratchaburi and Kanchanaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi and Kanchanaburi finished level at 1-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.30 xG and Kanchanaburi 1.12 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ratchaburi fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.06 / defence 0.98 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 63% | Draw 20% | Kanchanaburi 17%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.