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Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Chonburi FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Chonburi FC 1-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.55 xG and Chonburi FC 0.90 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chonburi FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.92 / defence 0.84 against Chonburi FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 51% | Draw 29% | Chonburi FC 20%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 40%, Chonburi FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Chonburi FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights