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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ratchaburi and Buriram United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 27, as Ratchaburi and Buriram United drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.13 xG and Buriram United 1.63 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Buriram United attack 1.48 / defence 0.78, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 24% | Draw 30% | Buriram United 46%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 57%, Buriram United 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Buriram United's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights