Ratchaburi 0-1 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Bangkok United meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bangkok United (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bangkok United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bangkok United's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.50 vs 2.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Bangkok United hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Bangkok United winning.
It is worth noting that Bangkok United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Bangkok United half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 60% and Bangkok United 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 57% | Bangkok United 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.43 xG and Bangkok United 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.959 / defence 0.900 | Bangkok United attack 1.225 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.219. Bangkok United have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Ratchaburi games / 35 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 37% | Draw 31% | Bangkok United 33%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Bangkok United 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 60% | Bangkok United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 37% | Draw 31% | Bangkok United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Ratchaburi 1.43 / Bangkok United 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.959 / def 0.900 | Bangkok United attack 1.225 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Bangkok United xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Ratchaburi 0 - 1 Bangkok United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 37% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ratchaburi and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Bangkok United?
Record (7 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 2 | Bangkok United 4W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Bangkok United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Bangkok United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Bangkok United's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Bangkok United's attack (1.23x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.27
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.77
1.34
Bangkok United xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.34 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 19W 8D 8L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bangkok United's form line: 24W 7D 4L from 35 games, 2.26 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Bangkok United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Ratchaburi against 2.26 for Bangkok United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 2.06 PPG from 17 outings (10W 5D 2L).
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 11W 3D 3L from 17 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ratchaburi are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 2.09 scored and 1.09 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Bangkok United in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Bangkok United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 19W 8D 8L in their last 35 games (1.86 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 24W 7D 4L in their last 35 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.06 PPG; Bangkok United away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 1-4 on 18 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bangkok United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
5
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Bangkok United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 3, Bangkok United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-0 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 59%, Bangkok United 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ratchaburi) and 65% (Bangkok United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bangkok United in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Bangkok United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Ratchaburi's games and 59% of Bangkok United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Ratchaburi's matches and 65% of Bangkok United's.
Do Ratchaburi and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bangkok United defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Ratchaburi 0-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.43 xG and Bangkok United 1.34 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.96 / defence 0.90 against Bangkok United attack 1.23 / defence 0.97, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 37% | Draw 31% | Bangkok United 33%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bangkok United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 57%, Bangkok United 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Bangkok United's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.86 PPG, Bangkok United 2.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bangkok United win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.