Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sam Ao Stadium plays host to Prachuap versus Sukhothai FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 13 September 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Prachuap haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Prachuap's favour (2.00 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Prachuap 3W, Sukhothai FC 2W, 3D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 50% versus Sukhothai FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Prachuap 40% | Sukhothai FC 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.74 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.011 / defence 0.917 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.838 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.020. Data: 30 Prachuap games / 30 Sukhothai FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 58% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Sukhothai FC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 50% | Sukhothai FC 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 58% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Prachuap 1.74 / Sukhothai FC 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.011 / def 0.917 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.838 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Sukhothai FC xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 58% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Prachuap and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Sukhothai FC?
Record (8 meetings): Prachuap 3W | Draws 3 | Sukhothai FC 2W.
What form are Prachuap and Sukhothai FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Prachuap (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (1.01) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.84x) against Prachuap's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.3%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
58%
1.71
27%
3.72
15%
6.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.53
0.78
Sukhothai FC xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
6.80
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
3%
38.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.78 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Prachuap come into this having played 30 games, going 11W 12D 7L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. Prachuap haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 0.93 PPG from 30 outings (6W 10D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. Sukhothai FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Prachuap's home form reads 8W 6D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.27 points per game from 15 outings (0W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Prachuap are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.77 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Pre-Season
Sukhothai FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 11W 12D 7L in their last 30 games (1.50 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 10D 14L in their last 30 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Prachuap's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.00 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.27 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Prachuap won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Prachuap
3
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 3, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Sukhothai FC 0-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Sukhothai FC?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Prachuap) and 27% (Sukhothai FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Prachuap and 27% for Sukhothai FC.
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Sukhothai FC in 73%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Prachuap's recent matches and 27% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Prachuap's recent games and 27% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.