Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Port FC (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Port FC face Lamphun Warrior.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Port FC welcome Lamphun Warrior to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 September 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Port FC's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1W 7D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Port FC, 2 for Lamphun Warrior and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 3–0 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 40% versus Lamphun Warrior 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 47% | Lamphun Warrior 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.68 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.132 / defence 0.877 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.954 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.020. Data: 30 Port FC games / 30 Lamphun Warrior games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 17%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Lamphun Warrior 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 40% | Lamphun Warrior 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Sep 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Port FC 1.68 / Lamphun Warrior 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.132 / def 0.877 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.954 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Port FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Lamphun Warrior xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Friday 11 September 2026 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 55% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Port FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (8 meetings): Port FC 4W | Draws 2 | Lamphun Warrior 2W.
What form are Port FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
55%
1.81
28%
3.59
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.54
0.85
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
3%
31.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Port FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Port FC and 0.85 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC come into this having played 30 games, going 18W 6D 6L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. Port FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 0.97 PPG from 30 outings (4W 17D 9L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. Lamphun Warrior haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Port FC's home form reads 11W 4D 0L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.47 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 0.87 points per game from 15 outings (2W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.17 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior in 67%.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Pre-Season
Lamphun Warrior
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 18W 6D 6L in their last 30 games (2.00 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 17D 9L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Port FC's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.47 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Port FC or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Port FC
2
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 40%, Lamphun Warrior 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Port FC) and 40% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Port FC's recent matches and 60% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Port FC's recent games and 40% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.