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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prachuap and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Prachuap and Sukhothai FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 2.04 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.03 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Prachuap fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.13 / defence 0.96 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 60% | Draw 23% | Sukhothai FC 17%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 46%, Sukhothai FC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.26 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights