Prachuap 1-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 60%, yet in-form Sukhothai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sam Ao Stadium plays host to Prachuap versus Sukhothai FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Wednesday 15 January 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Sukhothai FC are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Prachuap 3W, Sukhothai FC 2W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Sukhothai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 52% versus Sukhothai FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 46% | Sukhothai FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 2.04 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.127 / defence 0.965 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.915 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.168. Data: 46 Prachuap games / 46 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 60% | Draw 23% | Sukhothai FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Sukhothai FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sukhothai FC (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 30% | Sukhothai FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jan 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 60% | Draw 23% | Sukhothai FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Prachuap 2.04 / Sukhothai FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.127 / def 0.965 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.915 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sukhothai FC xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 15 January 2025 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Prachuap 1 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 60% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Prachuap and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Sukhothai FC?
Record (5 meetings): Prachuap 3W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 2W.
What form are Prachuap and Sukhothai FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (1.13) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.92x) against Prachuap's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.35
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Prachuap xG
Total xG
3.07
1.03
Sukhothai FC xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
2%
44.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.03 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Prachuap come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 16D 16L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.22 PPG from 46 outings (16W 8D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Prachuap against 1.22 for Sukhothai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Prachuap's home form reads 13W 6D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.65 points per game from 23 outings (3W 6D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Prachuap are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 14W 16D 16L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 16W 8D 22L in their last 46 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Prachuap's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.96 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Prachuap won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Prachuap
3
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Sukhothai FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 4, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Prachuap 1-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Sukhothai FC?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 52%, Sukhothai FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Prachuap and 70% for Sukhothai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sukhothai FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Prachuap's games and 65% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Prachuap's matches and 70% of Sukhothai FC's.
Do Prachuap and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Prachuap and Sukhothai FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 2.04 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.03 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Prachuap fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.13 / defence 0.96 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 60% | Draw 23% | Sukhothai FC 17%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 46%, Sukhothai FC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.26 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.